Contents
Nvidia’s Rise to $4 Trillion and the Path to $10 Trillion
Nvidia (NVDA) has made history by becoming the first company to reach a market capitalization of $4 trillion. As of now, its stock is up 1.7% in intraday trading, reflecting strong investor confidence in the company’s future. This milestone places Nvidia at the top of the global market valuation chart, but the question remains: Can it grow even further and reach a $10 trillion market cap by 2030?
Data Center Growth Driven by Blackwell GPUs
The data center segment is the primary driver behind Nvidia’s AI expansion. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, this division generated $39 billion, representing a 73% year-over-year increase and accounting for nearly 89% of total revenue. The success of the Blackwell GPU architecture has been instrumental in this growth, with nearly 70% of data center compute revenue coming from Blackwell.
Major tech companies such as Microsoft (MSFT) have already deployed tens of thousands of Blackwell GPUs, with OpenAI being a key customer. The next generation, GB300 “Blackwell Ultra,” is currently in sampling, with production expected in Q2. However, Nvidia faced challenges due to new U.S. government export controls on April 9, which targeted the H20 GPU designed for the Chinese market. Despite selling $4.6 billion worth of H20 chips before the cutoff, the company had to write down $4.5 billion in inventory and obligations, resulting in a significant financial charge. It is also expected to lose an additional $8 billion in Q2 revenue due to the H20 ban, effectively shutting it out of the $50 billion Chinese AI accelerator market.
Robotics and Agentic AI Are the Future
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that Blackwell is built to power the full AI life cycle, from training frontier models to running complex inference and reasoning agents at scale. He highlighted the importance of agentic AI—autonomous systems that can reason, learn, and act. To support this vision, Nvidia has introduced tools like Llama Nemotron reasoning models and NeMo microservices.
Beyond cloud data centers, the company is preparing for real-world AI applications. Its Omniverse platform is expanding through partnerships with industrial leaders such as Taiwan Semi (TSM), Foxconn, and GE Healthcare (GEHC). These collaborations enable real-time simulation and digital twin capabilities across factories and cities.
In robotics, Nvidia launched Isaac GR00T N1, the world’s first open foundation model for humanoid robots. Companies like Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, Uber (UBER), and Waabi have quickly adopted this technology. Additionally, the AI factory concept—a new infrastructure for developing and running large-scale AI models—is gaining traction, with nearly 100 AI factories now operational worldwide.
Wall Street’s Outlook on Nvidia Stock
Wall Street remains bullish on Nvidia. Out of 44 analysts covering the stock, 37 have a “Strong Buy” recommendation, three rate it a “Moderate Buy,” three give it a “Hold,” and one suggests a “Strong Sell.” The average target price of $176.98 implies a potential 10% increase from current levels, with a high price estimate of $250 suggesting a 50% upside over the next 12 months.
Analysts’ Projections and Market Expectations
Analysts expect Nvidia’s revenue to rise by 53% to $199.8 billion in fiscal year 2026, followed by a 43.6% increase in earnings. For fiscal 2027, revenue and earnings are projected to grow by 25.6% and 34.4%, respectively. Despite these positive forecasts, the stock trades at 37x forward earnings, making it a premium investment.
Long-Term Prospects and Investment Considerations
Nvidia’s revenue growth rate remains among the highest in the large-cap tech sector. With AI demand accelerating and the company’s full-stack AI dominance unmatched, there is a compelling case for long-term investment. However, the stock’s high valuation means risk-averse investors may prefer waiting for a better entry point around $148 or $149 to ensure a margin of safety.
As the AI landscape continues to evolve, Nvidia’s multiple growth engines—including AI inference at scale, industrial robotics, and enterprise AI infrastructure—position it well for sustained growth. Whether it can reach a $10 trillion market cap by 2030 will depend on continued innovation, market expansion, and strategic execution.
